See what’s priced in for this week’s earnings

What this recipe computes

• Names with a reporting date inside a tunable window, filtered to real option activity.
• The one-standard-deviation move scaled to the report date from 30-day implied volatility.
• IV30 and 1-year IV rank alongside the move.

What it does not claim

• Nothing here predicts direction or outcome.
• Implied volatility routinely collapses after the report whichever way price goes.
• A simple iv30 approximation — per-expiry precision belongs in Expected Move.

How to read it

1. Step 1

   Read move against rank

   A big move on a low IV rank is a quiet name facing a real event.

2. Step 2

   Check liquidity

   Premium traded today shows whether the name has options worth trading around the print.

3. Step 3

   Price the exact expiry

   Expected Move reads each expiry’s own ATM implied volatility instead of scaling one number.

Frequently asked questions

Does a big implied move mean a big actual move?

No. Implied ranges run systematically wider than realised ones. That gap is the volatility risk premium, and it is why selling into earnings is a strategy at all.

What is IV crush?

Implied volatility rises into a known event and falls once the uncertainty resolves. An option can lose value after the report even when the stock moved the way you expected.

Related glossary

• IV crushIV crush is a sharp drop in implied volatility after uncertainty resolves, often after earnings. Premium can fall even when the stock moves your way.
• IV RankIV Rank places today’s implied volatility between its recent high and low so “expensive” or “cheap” is relative to that underlying’s history.
• Moneyness (ITM / ATM / OTM)Moneyness labels a contract relative to spot: in-the-money (ITM), at-the-money (ATM), or out-of-the-money (OTM).

Related personas

• Unusual Options Activity for Earnings TradersEarnings compress time: IV expands, strikes get loud, and bad filters get expensive. Rank unusual activity, then check whether flow sits in the event expiry.
• GEX and Options Flow for Volatility TradersVol traders live in regimes. GEX and IV set the weather; flow shows whether customers are paying for convexity or harvesting premium now.
• Unusual Options Activity for EarningsEarnings compress time: IV is rich, strikes get loud, and the wrong filter set gets expensive. Rank unusual activity, bound DTE to the event, and plan for IV crush as well as direction.

Related recipes

• Expected moveAnswer "how far is this name priced to move by Friday" without building a vol surface first.
• Implied vs realizedCompare a scaled IV30 move to what price actually did, without pretending IV30 is a 5-day vol surface.
• IV rank boardAnswer "whose implied vol is rich right now" without already knowing which symbol to check.